Prediction Markets Continue to Be Terrible Things; Where Is All the Salmonella Coming From? Coachella Valley Independent’s Indy Digest: Aug. 20, 2026

Indy Digest: Aug. 20, 2026

A Los Angeles Times headline earlier this week caught my attention—and made me, yet again, bemoan the current state of humanity.

The headline: “‘That was fun.’ As L.A. burned, online gamblers bet on how much the fires would destroy.”

Ugh. The story’s lede:

As deadly firestorms raged in Los Angeles County, carving a path of destruction that displaced families and killed 31 people, bets online were rolling in.

The wagers flowed into Polymarket, a company that bills itself as the largest platform for predicting global events, where it posed frequently asked questions about the Eaton and Palisades fires as they scorched communities. How fast would the blazes grow? How long would it take to contain them? How much would be destroyed?

According to a letter sent from nine senators this month to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction market platforms, Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in predictions, or bets, on the January 2025 fires.

“That was fun. Thanks everyone. Until the next time!” one Polymarket user commented on a thread where users could put money on the Palisades fire’s containment date. Others, however, expressed some concerns about the morality of cashing in on the destruction.

“This is deeply unethical,” one commented.

I repeat: Ugh.

I grew up in Nevada, where gambling (and make no mistake: “prediction market” is just a euphemistic way of saying “gambling”) is everywhere. “Gaming” (another euphemism!) in the form of slot machines and video poker machines is often found in convenience stores, for pete’s sake.

Yes, gambling is everywhere in Nevada—but it’s also heavily regulated. At one time, the mob ruled Nevada’s gambling system; today, it’s heavily regulated by the Nevada Gaming Commission and the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

As for these “prediction markets” … they’re not regulated much—and they’re fighting the attempts to regulate them at every turn.

That Los Angeles Times piece goes on to say:

California Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff, along with seven other lawmakers, urged the federal government in their letter to rein in such betting and prevent people from profiting on wildfires and other disasters.

The letter comes while the platforms are under increasing scrutiny for allowing bets on ethically sensitive topics such as the outcomes of elections, military actions, clinical trials and FDA approvals on livesaving medications.

In a statement, a Polymarket spokesperson pushed back at some of the claims in the letter, saying it was part of “a misleading narrative based on markets we haven’t offered for nearly 2 years.”

Critics say the platforms are magnets for insider trading and could motivate people to engage in other illegal or unethical activity to win money. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but states on its website that it prohibits insider trading.

One more time: Ugh.

—Jimmy Boegle

VOTING OPEN NOW!

More News

• COVID-19 rates—while still very low compared to the bad ol’ days—are up, up, up. CNN says: “Are you coughing, hacking or feeling feverish? It may not be just a summer cold; you might want to consider taking a COVID test. Although the autumn respiratory illness season hasn’t kicked off, and flu and RSV activity remain low, there’s a growing summer wave of COVID-19. Case numbers aren’t especially high, and the United States isn’t recording many hospitalizations or deaths. But data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the test positivity rate for the week ending Aug. 8 above 3% for the first time since March, with numbers climbing in every state.”

• Another illness-causing organism is also on the rise: salmonella. Wired looks at the myriad salmonella recalls making headlines—and offers some common-sense suggestions on avoiding the bacteria: “Edward Dudley, a professor of food science at Penn State, says that in produce-growing regions that also have a lot of agriculture, there is always potential for waste from infected farm animals to come into contact with produce. ‘The closer those two sites come to each other, the greater the chance that you’re going to have salmonella or E. coli from the animals getting into surface waters that are used for irrigation that can eventually be transmitted to the crops,’ he says. He says people don’t need to be overly concerned about salmonella, especially if they’ve already thrown out the products affected by the recalls, ‘but certainly, be cautious.’ That means washing your hands before handling food, cleaning food-prep and cooking surfaces, refrigerating perishables promptly, cooking foods to a safe internal temperature, and keeping raw meat, eggs, and poultry away from other foods in the kitchen.”

• The Los Angeles Times reports on the battle between man and nature when it comes to California’s beaches: “During a morning jog on the Long Beach Peninsula this week, I stumbled upon a sight so absurd—so telling about our delusional and haphazard efforts to address climate change — it stopped me in my tracks. A big, yellow bulldozer was treads-deep in the ocean, getting slapped from behind by incoming waves, clanking and groaning with the effort to shove wet, heavy sand out of the sea and back onto the beach. …  (Journalist Rosanna Xia) explained the consensus among California environmental leaders is that the state should prepare for 3.5 feet of sea level rise by 2050, but residents don’t have to wait a generation to find out what that means. El Niño seasons, winter storms and summer king tides like the one this week ‘provide a powerful glimpse into what the future could look like on a consistent basis,’ she said, ‘and what the new normal could look like if we don’t prepare communities for the reality of what’s to come.’”

• Yet again, the Trump administration is prioritizing profit over science and common sense. Our partners at Calmatters report: “The Trump administration announced Tuesday it is rolling back a rule prohibiting logging and road construction in undeveloped parts of national forests, including more than 4 million acres of federally managed forest lands in California. The change could open some of California’s most remote backcountry to new roads and development — even as U.S. Forest Service research shows that roads are a major source of wildfire ignitions in the state’s national forests. People start most of California’s wildfires, including on federal land—and it’s not just sparks from faulty power lines. Fires can start in many ways: A hiker might burn toilet paper in the backcountry, a hot tub might be miswired, or someone might drag a tow chain or pull a hot car onto dry grass. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, who first announced the plan last year, said today that federal officials filed a proposal and environmental impact statement to rescind the rule in order to reduce barriers to managing fuels on public lands.”

• Is this an economic canary in the figurative coal mine? The Washington Post reports (gift link): “Signs of inflation weariness are starting to appear at some of the nation’s most important retail giants, raising doubts about how long consumers can keep up strong spending. On Thursday, Walmart, one of the nation’s largest retailers, reported its weakest sales growth since the pandemic recession in 2020, a dip blamed in part on falling prescription drug prices. Analysts expressed concern about Walmart’s growth and what that says about the strength of the U.S. consumer. ‘It does raise this question, is the consumer slowing down?’ said Neil Saunders, a retail analyst at GlobalData. ‘There’s definitely a few signs that things are becoming a bit tattered at the edges.’ Surging fuel prices and higher inflation have plagued Americans this year, especially since the war in Iran began in February. Americans have mostly been spending robustly this year, even for things that are not necessities. Consumer spending is important because it makes up roughly two-thirds of economic activity.” At least the “falling prescription drug prices” part is good …

• And finally … today’s recall news involves … fruit bars! And this one has nothing to do with salmonella. CBS Moneywatch says: “Five flavors of Outshine Fruit Bars have been recalled because they may contain glass, according to parent company Dreyer’s Grand Ice Cream. The recalled products, which were sold nationwide, are the 2.5-ounce strawberry, watermelon, grape, tangerine and black cherry flavors, packaged in six-count boxes, according to the Aug. 16 statement from the company. … Dreyer’s said that no illnesses or injuries have been reported to date, and added that consumers who bought the recalled items should dispose of them or return them to the store where they were purchased for a refund.”

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