The Damage That Bad Punditry Can Cause; Pour One Out for Salon.com–Coachella Valley Independent’s Indy Digest: Nov. 9, 2026

Indy Digest: Nov. 9, 2026

Serious question: Is it time for national political journalists to ditch polling and election-forecast punditry for good?

Whereas polls in recent years underestimated Republican votes, this year, they vastly underestimated Democratic votes. The Washington Post (gift link) reports:

Nationally, poll averages leading up to Election Day showed Democrats leading by roughly nine percentage points in support for Congress, making them strong favorites to flip control of the U.S. House even with Republicans’ redistricting advantage. But even that big lead was an underestimate, with the New York Times estimating that Democrats will win the popular vote by 13 percentage points, the largest margin for either party since 1976.

A similar pattern played out in seven toss-up U.S. Senate contests: Poll averages showed Democrats ahead by five points or less, but the party ended up winning six of these states by margins from four and 12 points, with Alaska still counting ballots. Polls came within two points of the current vote margins in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Michigan, a strong performance considering that pollsters have either struggled or rarely conducted polls in these states in recent elections.

But polls were far less accurate in Texas, underestimating Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico by nine percentage points, and in Iowa, where polls underestimated Democrat Josh Turek’s winning margin by four points. Democrats also outperformed the polls in states that handicappers rated as leaning toward one party—contests that generally attract fewer polls—with Democrats pulling off an upset in South Carolina and running up the scores in Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

This piece didn’t even mention Mississippi, where Democrat Scott Colom is leading incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,500 votes as of this writing.

Colom is calling out the national political forecasters—Cook Political Report in particular—for actually being harmful.

Our friends at the Mississippi Free Press report:

Scott Colom, the Mississippi Democrat who is leading in the count of the state’s U.S. Senate race, says that polling analysts like the Cook Political Report make it harder for candidates like him in Southern states to compete and fundraise. Cook Political had the Mississippi race labeled as “Solid Republican” in its analysis ahead of the election, suggesting the state was an impossible flip.

“At some point, we have to talk about @CookPolitical and other ‘prognosticators’ who had me and other southern candidates labeled as solid R for much of the campaign cycle,” Colom wrote on Monday morning. “They made it much more difficult to fundraise and are part of the reason the South has been neglected for so long.”

He also pointed to Jaime Davis, the Louisiana Democrat who came within two points of winning the U.S. Senate race there on Nov. 3. “This attitude hurt Jaime Davis & others so much,” he wrote.

Colom is also criticizing Cook for another thing—being rude and dismissive.

AL.com says:

The Mississippi Democrat claimed one of the election analyst’s staffers was “condescending” to him when he challenged them on the race’s rating.

“They’re only a reflection of the past and mysteriously avoid any accountability when they’re wrong. One of their ‘analysts’ was extremely condescending to me (not Jessica) when I tried to make my pitch for why they were wrong about my rating like he knew something about MS politics when he’s never been to the Sip,” Colom said.

No, national political forecasting is not going anywhere. But until the pollsters and pundits start doing a better job, we should not take their “information” very seriously.

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More News

• Articles of impeachment have been introduced against Defense Secretary and Beardo Hater Pete Hegseth. The Associated Press says: “Rep. Thomas Massie moved Monday to force a vote to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, pressing his fellow Republicans to remove one of the Trump administration’s most prominent figures following sweeping election losses blamed in part on fallout from the war in Iran. Massie, a Kentucky Republican, read the impeachment resolution from the House floor just hours after it opened for the first day of sessions after the midterms. It largely focuses on the war in Iran but also includes references to Hegseth’s role in carrying out military actions in Yemen and Venezuela. The congressman, who was defeated by a Trump-backed challenger in a primary earlier this year, said Hegseth’s actions amounted to ‘high crimes and misdemeanors.’ Hegseth, he said, ‘knowingly executed and implemented unlawful orders’ and ‘remains a threat to the Constitution.’ President Donald Trump lashed out at Massie personally just hours after the congressman read the resolution, calling him a ‘loser’ who ‘has a lot of hatred in his heart.’” Chances of getting a majority of votes in the House? Pretty good. Chances of getting two-thirds of the votes in the Senate? Not great.

• Speaking of cabinet officials who deserve to be impeached (and perhaps imprisoned) … the United States’ status regarding measles elimination will soon be determined. Politico reports: “This week, eight public health officials who advise an arm of the United Nations will consider whether the U.S. can still say it’s eliminated measles. For Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the longtime vaccine skeptic who’s helmed America’s response to the thousands of cases that have erupted since last year, it will be a legacy-defining decision. The Pan American Health Organization’s answer would seem obvious, with measles ripping through Pennsylvania, New York in a state of emergency and more than 7,000 infections reported nationwide since January 2025. But the officials will have to determine that a single chain of transmission has continued for at least a year to take away measles-elimination status. If not, Kennedy will get more time as he attempts to show that his agency can curb the spread of measles, a disease that can only be contained when the vaccination rate is at least 95%, even as he seeks to downsize the childhood vaccine schedule, discourage school vaccination mandates and promote his discredited belief that vaccines cause far more injuries than the government has acknowledged. The potential loss of measles elimination status comes as Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again movement is fighting to maintain its political relevancy, and its favored position inside the Trump administration, after sweeping Republican losses during the midterm elections. Losing the status could also weigh Kennedy himself down, whether he wants to keep working for Trump, as he says, or whether he decides to revisit the presidential ambitions he put aside two years ago to take the health secretary job.” Ugh.

• Remember that lawsuit regarding more than 20,000 California voters’ ballots that the feds filed? Well, now that the election was a romp … never mind! NBC News says: “The U.S. Department of Justice on Friday moved to dismiss its own lawsuit that sought to stop California from counting roughly 20,000 ballots it alleged went to noncitizens until their immigration status could be verified. The request to dismiss the case comes days after Republicans’ significant losses in the midterm elections and about a week before a scheduled hearing where a special master was slated to evaluate the accuracy of the list. California officials have previously said the list is out of date and includes legitimate voters — a sentiment that the federal judge presiding over the case echoed in his blistering order denying the federal government’s request. The case was at the forefront of President Donald Trump’s administration’s effort to assert control over state-run elections across the country, which Trump has said are rife with illegal voting without providing evidence. The Department of Justice remains enmeshed in litigation with immigrant and voting rights groups seeking to limit its use of the list of what is says are suspected noncitizens.”

• The Christian right endured a number of election losses in school-board races around the region. The Press-Enterprise (subscription required) says: “Culture-war fights that dominated some Inland school boards in recent years might die down, if not end altogether, if current Tuesday, Nov. 3, election returns hold. Results posted Friday evening, Nov. 6, showed Christian conservative candidates trailing in races to keep or win school board seats in Chino Valley, Redlands and Temecula—all battlegrounds over policies affecting LGBTQ+ students and what should be allowed in classrooms. Inland Empire Christian conservative Sonja Shaw conceded after falling behind Richard Barrera early in the race for state superintendent of public instruction. Her husband, Chris Shaw, is trailing in his race to succeed her on Chino Valley’s school board. The Christian right’s losses might not stop there, though hundreds of thousands of ballots remained uncounted in Riverside and San Bernardino counties entering Friday, Nov. 6. In Temecula, incumbent Joseph Komrosky and fellow conservatives Ronda Bowen and Brian Emmert are behind in their races for school board seats. Bowen sought to replace conservative Jen Wiersma, who chose not to run again. In Redlands, Dr. Dale Broome trailed incumbent Patty Holohan while progressive-minded Ryan Schavrien led a race to succeed conservative Michelle Rendler. In Chino Valley, conservative incumbent Shaun Smith is losing to Meagan Lichthart. If these trends stand, conservatives would lose their majorities in Redlands and Temecula—a seismic shift in local governance given recent elections that gave power to the Christian right.”

• A newly passed law in Britain is severely restricting porn. Wired magazine explains how the law is a big problem in terms of free speech: “A new UK law banning porn featuring choking and ‘fauxcest,’ or simulated incest, may have unintended consequences for content creators and smut fans all over the world, some experts warn. As of November 6, amendments to the Crime and Policing Act will outlaw the ‘possession or publication of pornographic images of strangulation or suffocation’—a law intended to curb violence against women and girls. Yet some experts warn that the legislation is written broadly enough that it could potentially criminalize far more innocuous content, including ‘breast smothering,’ ‘jeans facesitting,’ and even potentially oral sex, ostensibly because people could have their airways impeded during these activities. ‘I would encourage both content creators and consumers to underscore the risks of this law,’ says Myles Jackman, an obscenity lawyer in the UK. ‘Because to me, it genuinely seems like one of the greatest acts of suppression of free speech in global history.’“

• And finally … one of the first, most influential and, for a while, best digital-only publications is coming to an end. The Associated Press says: “Salon, one of the early internet’s most influential websites that featured sharp voices and political and cultural journalism with a liberal sensibility, announced Thursday it would shut down after 31 years of publication. ‘It has been an extraordinary privilege,’ the outlet said in a farewell note. The announcement, seen as a surprise, cited the fact that ‘the business realities of independent digital journalism have changed profoundly over the years.’ It did not immediately indicate what would become of its employees, though some reported they had lost their jobs. A spokesperson for the outlet said 19 full-time employees had been affected, as well as a handful of private contractors. … Salon began its life in the mid-1990s, barely three years after the internet itself went mainstream and a time when the ‘World Wide Web’ was still written out in that fashion. It launched a decade before the newspaper and print magazine markets imploded—and a decade, too, before the rise of social media fragmented the journalism world.”

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